Impacts of rising temperatures and precipitation on the survival of Near-Threatened reptiles in Pakistan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17229644Keywords:
Species distribution modeling, Temperature, Precipitation, Near-Threatened species, RCP 4.5 and 8.5Abstract
The Near-Threatened reptilian species of Pakistan are particularly vulnerable to climate change, especially due to variations in temperature and precipitation. This country hosts a diverse and exceptional reptilian fauna, owing to its varied ecological gradients and complex zoogeographic regions. In the present study, we evaluated the impact of temperature and precipitation on Near-Threatened reptile species viz. (Crossobamon orientalis, Eryx conicus, Eryx johnii, and Python molurus) under the current and future conditions for the years 2050 and 2070. To achieve this, we utilized present and projected climatic data from Worldclim and species occurrence records from GBIF (Global Biodiversity Information Facility). We modelled current distributions (1980-2019) and future distributions (averaged between 2050 and 2070) using MaxEnt. For future climatic scenarios, we considered two peak carbon-emission pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, providing an overview of environmental conditions and habitat suitability for the species in question. Our results indicate that under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the distribution of all four targeted reptilian species is projected to shift toward higher northern altitudes and from central-eastern regions extending into lower eastern altitudes. Compared to current suitable habitats, we estimate an average habitat loss of approximately 35 % by 2050 and 50 % by 2070. These findings are critical for policymakers and conservationists as they highlight specific geographic areas and timeframes where habitat loss is most severe.
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